Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning

The field of machine learning is moving towards a greater emphasis on uncertainty quantification, with a focus on developing methods that can provide reliable and robust estimates of uncertainty in complex systems. This is driven by the need for trustworthy and transparent decision-making in high-stakes applications, such as healthcare, finance, and autonomous systems. Recent research has explored the use of conformal prediction, stochastic operator networks, and distributionally robust optimization to address this challenge. These methods have shown promise in providing accurate and reliable uncertainty estimates, even in the presence of distribution shifts and data contamination. Notably, the integration of conformal prediction with deep learning models has emerged as a promising approach, enabling the provision of valid prediction intervals with coverage guarantees.

Some noteworthy papers in this area include: The Distribution-Free Uncertainty-Aware Virtual Sensing via Conformalized Neural Operators paper, which introduces a framework for transforming neural operator-based virtual sensing with calibrated, distribution-free prediction intervals. The Conformal Prediction for Privacy-Preserving Machine Learning paper, which investigates the integration of Conformal Prediction with supervised learning on deterministically encrypted data.

Sources

Last Layer Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Conformal Prediction for Privacy-Preserving Machine Learning

Stochastic Operator Network: A Stochastic Maximum Principle Based Approach to Operator Learning

Non-exchangeable Conformal Prediction with Optimal Transport: Tackling Distribution Shifts with Unlabeled Data

Distributionally Robust Optimization with Adversarial Data Contamination

Accelerating seismic inversion and uncertainty quantification with efficient high-rank Hessian approximations

Distribution-Free Uncertainty-Aware Virtual Sensing via Conformalized Neural Operators

Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Conformal Prediction

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